Tensions are escalating between Niger’s new military regime and the West African regional bloc that has ordered the deployment of troops to restore Niger’s flailing democracy.
The Ecowas bloc said it has directed a “standby force” to restore constitutional order in Niger after its Sunday deadline to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum expired.
Hours earlier, two Western officials told AP that Niger’s junta had informed a top US diplomat they would kill Mr Bazoum if neighbouring countries attempted any military intervention to restore his rule.
It is unclear when or where the force will deploy and which countries from the 15-member bloc would contribute to it.
Conflict experts say it would likely comprise some 5,000 troops led by Nigeria and could be ready within weeks.
After the Ecowas meeting, neighbouring Ivory Coast’s president, Alassane Ouattara, said his country would take part in the military operation, along with Nigeria and Benin.
“Ivory Coast will provide a battalion and has made all the financial arrangements … We are determined to install Bazoum in his position. Our objective is peace and stability in the sub-region,” Mr Ouattara said on state television.
Niger, an impoverished country of some 25 million people, was seen as one of the last hopes for Western nations to partner with in beating back a jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group that’s ravaged the region.
France and the United States have more than 2,500 military personnel in Niger and together with other European partners had poured hundreds of millions of dollars into propping up its military.
The junta responsible for spearheading the coup, led by Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, has exploited anti-French sentiment among the population to shore up its support.
Nigeriens in the capital, Niamey, on Friday said ECOWAS is not in touch with the reality on the ground and should not intervene.
Achirou Harouna Albassi, a resident who says Mr Bazoum was not abiding by the will of the people, said: “It is our business, not theirs. They don’t even know the reason why the coup happened in Niger.”
Hundreds of people marched toward the French military base in Niamey waving Russian flags and screaming “down with France”.
Many were young, including children, all chanting that the French should go.
Also on Friday, the African Union expressed strong support for ECOWAS’ decision and called on the junta to “urgently halt the escalation with the regional organisation”.
It also called for the immediate release of Mr Bazoum. An African Union meeting to discuss the situation in Niger expected on Saturday was postponed.
On Thursday night after the summit, France’s foreign ministry said it supported “all conclusions adopted”.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken said his country appreciated “the determination of Ecowas to explore all options for the peaceful resolution of the crisis” and would hold the junta accountable for the safety and security of President Bazoum.
However, he did not specify whether the US supported the deployment of troops.
The mutinous soldiers who ousted Mr Bazoum more than two weeks ago have entrenched themselves in power, appear closed to dialogue and have refused to release the president.
Representatives of the junta told US under secretary of state Victoria Nuland of the threat to Mr Bazoum’s life during her visit to the country this week, a Western military official said.
“The threat to kill Bazoum is grim,” said Alexander Thurston, assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati. There have been unwritten rules until now about how overthrown presidents will be treated and violence against Mr Bazoum would evoke some of the worst coups of the past, he said.
Human Rights Watch said on Friday that it had spoken to Mr Bazoum, who said that his 20-year-old son was sick with a serious heart condition and has been refused access to a doctor.
The president said he has not had electricity for nearly 10 days and is not allowed to see family, friends or bring supplies into the house.
It is unclear if the threat on Mr Bazoum’s life would change Ecowas’s decision to intervene military. It might give them pause, or push the parties closer to dialogue, but the situation has entered uncharted territory, analysts say.
“An Ecowas invasion to restore constitutional order into a country of Niger’s size and population would be unprecedented,” said Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
Niger has a fairly large and well-trained army that, if it actively resisted an invasion, could pose significant problems for Ecowas. This would be a very large and significant undertaking, he said.
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